Raila gained more than 3% new voters from the Presidential Debate

In about one week, both Infotrak and Ipsos Synovate will release their last opinion poll results before the August 8th general elections. In the previous results released on Sunday 23rd 2017, Infotrak had Raila leading with 47% while Uhuru following closely at 46%. The undecided voters were 6%. Ipsos on the other hand had Uhuru leading with 47% and Raila coming a close second at 43%, with undecided voters at 8%. After yesterday’s Presidential debate, I expect Raila’s figures to hit 50% in Infotrak and reach 46% in Ipsos.

This is why.

There have been numerous Twitter polls conducted by media houses and polling handles like the @DailyPollsKE. Other individuals like Cyprian Nyakundi have also conducted their own Twitter polls. As much as these Twitter polls are not scientific, given that it is impossible to block non-Kenyans and unregistered Kenyans from participating in the polls, by and large the polls with over 5,000 respondents have been coalescing around 55% for Raila Odinga and 35% for Uhuru Kenyatta.

 

However, after the debate, Raila’s Twitter performance increased from the average value of 55% to an average value of 60%. One such poll by @xtiandela that has so far received over 20,000 responses has given Raila 65% rating.

Based on the trends from Twitter, and views collected from other online sources, it is realistic to expect that Raila has gained over 3% points based on his sole appearance in yesterday’s Presidential Debate. If this is true, then the next polls will be something like this:

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Infotrak –

Raila Odinga 50%

Uhuru Kenyatta – 45%

Other Candidates – 1%

Undecided – 4%

 

Ipsos Synovate –

Uhuru Kenyatta – 47%

Raila Odinga – 46%

Other Candidates – 1%

Undecided – 5%

From my own analysis, I gave Raila a round 1 win of 50.8%. In a new quick analysis where I have considered the likely performance of Raila Odinga after Uhuru Kenyatta gave Kenyans the middle finger, the data shows Raila garnering 9.02 million votes against Uhuru’s 7.64 million votes – or a 52.18% round one win for Raila Odinga. This data analysis is however preliminary and will be released only after the opinion pollsters have released their last surveys. The final opinion polls before the general elections will enable me to incorporate their insights into my analysis. In the meantime I am continuing to gather the moods of the electorates from the various counties.

Odipo Riaga
Managing Editor at KachTech Media
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