NASA Coalition goes to Supreme Court – Is it a strategy, a trap or confusion?

When did NASA Coalition know they’ll go to Supreme Court to contest the results of the 2017 presidential elections? The answer to this question would tell us whether the move by the coalition to go to Supreme Court was a long thought out strategy, or whether they were set up by Jubilee to land in the Supreme Court, or whether NASA Coalition is simply a bunch of confused losers who really do not know what to do.

Supreme Court was a NASA Coalition thought out Strategy

Everyone especially core NASA Coalition supporters would want to believe that the decision to go to the Supreme Court was not an afterthought but a well planned strategy. As a strategy, NASA would have wanted not to tell their political opponents the move they’d make in case the election was not called on NASA’s favour. More specifically, NASA would have wanted to send a strong message to the opponents that in case NASA lost in the elections, then their next move would have nothing to do with the Supreme Court. This would work to mislead the opponents to focus on other possibilities like mass action.

The misleading message would mean NASA opponents would focus their energies elsewhere; e.g. in mobilisation of security agencies with an aim to contain sporadic violence across the country once the election outcome was announced, instead of putting its legal team together to strategize on how best to counteract a possible petition in Supreme Court. According to other analysts, this kind of strategy would also work in favour of a true independent Judiciary as Jubilee would have had no time to think of compromising the Supreme Court Judges.

The other part of the strategy would be to allow NASA have ample time to collect irrefutable evidence showing how the elections were stolen.

The belief that NASA’s move to Supreme Court is a strategy is not based on flimsy grounds, but on certain utterances made during the campaign period. Those utterances included statements indicating that NASA had set in place mechanisms to collect irrefutable evidence for electoral fraud in case they happen. However, during election day, it was witnessed that NASA was generally missing in key polling stations especially deep within Jubilee strongholds where they should have collected important evidence.

NASA Coalition was set up by Jubilee to end up in the Supreme Court

Although many would like to believe that the decision by NASA Coalition to go to the Supreme Court was a thoroughly thought out strategy, there are reasons to believe that Jubilee could have set up NASA to actually land at the Supreme Court. In NASA’s statement read yesterday by Rt. Hon. Raila Amolo Odinga, we were told that the crackdown the NGO Board had on Kenyan Human Rights Commission (KHRC) and Africa Centre for Open Governance (AfriCOG) played a key role in NASA’s change of mind in regards to not petitioning the results at the Supreme Court.

If indeed the crackdown on the two civil society bodies forced NASA to change its mind about petitioning the results at the Supreme Court, then it is easy to see how they were set up by Jubilee to land at the court. Before the crackdown, NASA held that they were not interested in taking their case to the Supreme Court as they knew how the Supreme Court would rule. In the meantime, KHRC and AfriCOG indicated that they intended to contest the results at the Supreme Court. The crackdown on the two NGOs would thus mean that the Government was scared of a Supreme Court petition. If the government was seen as scared of a Supreme Court petition, then anyone who would manage to file a petition at the Supreme Court would be guaranteed a win.

NASA reading that the Government was scared of being taken to the Supreme Court, could have then easily taken the bait, have a change of mind, and finally decide to end up in the Supreme Court. If this is the case, then NASA has been set up for another major failure as the Supreme Court will most likely throw away their petition. Remember, if the move to the Supreme Court is a set up, then NASA has not collected any evidence on electoral fraud that can withstand court scrutiny.

The strategy argument assumes that Jubilee has not been ready for a Supreme Court battle. However, in the past few weeks, someone has been sponsoring ads on TV and radio to preach loudly that our court systems work. It doesn’t need a genius to know that this ad, most probably sponsored by the government, has been targeting NASA Coalition. Also, all Jubilee affiliated individuals, observers, and religious leaders have been calling on NASA to seek redress in the Supreme Court. Indeed, Jubilee has always wanted NASA to go to the Supreme Court meaning it has always been ready for a Supreme Court battle.

NASA Coalition is a bunch of confused losers who don’t know what to do

Other than Moses Wetangula, all the other NASA principals lost bitterly. Isaac Rutto for instance lost twice – both at the governorship race and at the presidential level, no wonder he has been missing in action ever since the results were announced.  His bitterness can only be rivaled by the bitterness of Raila Odinga.

Raila Odinga must be very bitter as the 2017 elections was his last stab at the presidency. We all know that if there is something Raila has ever wanted, dreamed of, is to become Kenya’s president at some point in his life.

Kalonzo Musyoka may not be as bitter, but his political capital was watered down in Ukambani. Two of the three Ukambani counties are now not under his control, as Machakos was taken up by Jubilee sympathizer Alfred Mutua, whereas Kitui was taken up by his bitter rival and unpredictable veteran politician Charity Ngilu. Having lost the grip of Ukambani politics, the only thing that may save Musyoka’s political future is being as close as possible to the presidency.

Mudavadi and Wetangula still have bright political futures as they managed to kick out ODM out of Western Kenya especially in the MCA and Parliamentary seats, even though ODM still has control of Busia and Kakamega counties.

The bitterness and confusion these NASA Coalition principals are experiencing may mean they are not in the right mental states to make strategic decisions, but may make moves that well, may or may not work, even if that move is a trap by Jubilee.

The evidence for the confusion was seen when Mudavadi presented to the media and IEBC figures alleged to have been retrieved from IEBC servers showing that NASA had won the elections, figures that IEBC demonstrated not to add up.

Conclusion

We may want to believe that NASA’s move to the Supreme Court is a thoroughly planned strategy, but chances that the NASA principals easily fell into Jubilee’s trap due to their confusion are higher.