I can swear there will be no elections in 90 days – Next election is due on August 2022

NASArite better believe that Canaan is no more. Yesterday NASA leader Raila Odinga issues yet another promise saying that Canaan is still on course, and that he’ll issue a way forward tomorrow. Many believe him because according to them Raila has never been wrong, but Raila was wrong that there won’t be an election on October 26th 2017.  Raila is wrong again, there won’t be an election in 90 days.

Today Uhuru Kenyatta will be declared President Elect. Raila will dismiss the declaration, and he will urge his supporters to take to the streets to protest against the declaration. He will also ask NASArites to boycott certain products and services. The protests and boycotts will continue for a few weeks, then NASArites will give up, except a few diehard supporters mostly from Luo Nyanza and selected slums in Nairobi. He will probably also sponsor someone to challenge the election in the Supreme Court, but this time round Uhuru Kenyatta has ensured that the judges are also taken care of, so the cases will either not be heard or will be heard and dismissed with costs.

The agitations will die down, especially from the fact that NASA is broke and has close to zero international support. The East and the West want Uhuru Kenyatta to move on with governance so that they can get those promised tenders. Africa is always in support of whoever declares himself President, and locally the country is divided down the middle but majority don’t really care whether or not Uhuru Kenyatta is President for the next five years. I mean, if the choice is between death or Uhuru’s presidency, many dissatisfied Kenyans will choose Uhuru’s presidency.

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Lack of sustainable agitation either in courts or in the streets will ensure there are no elections any time before August 2022. But that doesn’t mean things will sail smoothly for Uhuru Kenyatta. By mid 2020s, the Presidency of Uhuru Kenyatta will come crumbling down and will he held by nothing but a thin thread.

The borrowing spree Uhuru Kenyatta found himself in will be the bulldozer that bulls down his empire. As from next year, Uhuru Kenyatta will be required to start repaying most of the loans he has been borrowing, including the Eurobond and the SGR loans. Within one or two years, almost 50% the revenues he will be collecting will be going to loan repayment, especially now that most of the loans he took haven’t been used to generate additional revenue. We all know that the Eurobond hasn’t been accounted for, and SGR loans went to a non-revenue generation project – the SGR. Then we have a dwindling tea sector, a tourism sector that has refused to grow, and a manufacturing sector where many manufacturers are relocating to South Africa or Egypt. These key economic performances only point to one direction, that Uhuru Kenyatta will not be in a position to pay government workforce by the time the 2020/2021 budget is read.

By that time, teachers, doctors, nurses, lecturers, and the rest of government will take to the streets. Business men and women who will not be able to sell anything to anyone will also join the strikes. Then the hawkers will join in…and the rest of Kenyans.

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It will be by military force that Uhuru Kenyatta will use to hold onto his presidency until 2022.

Odipo Riaga
Managing Editor at KachTech Media
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