Tallying numbers have left many wondering, Is it Raila? Is it Ruto? My bet is Ruto will take this thing

This year’s presidential election is the closest yet in Kenya’s history. As opposed to 2007 when the media houses had Raila maintain the lead until the government put a stop to their broadcast of unverified results, and as opposed to both 2013 and 2017 results where Uhuru Kenyatta was constantly in the lead by a predetermined margin, this year’s tallying numbers have seen William Ruto and Raila Odinga switching positions in both Citizen TV and NTV but remaining marginally close.

At some point, memes were circulating to the effect that if you are a Raila supporter you ought to watch Citizen TV, whereas if you are a Ruto supporter you ought to watch NTV and KTN. The memes stopped when tallying numbers from both Citizen TV and NTV started showing Raila in the lead before tallying numbers from Citizen started to show Ruto in the lead. This switching back and forth has left many wondering whether it is Raila or Ruto that will be declared the President, me included. If you asked me though, I would say it is Ruto that will be declared the president.

My inclination towards Ruto is based on KTN tallying numbers that had had Ruto in the lead for the better part of their tallying, Raila played catch up at some point, then Ruto again widening the gap where by the time of this writing, Ruto had 5,900,102 votes (50.2%) and Raila had 5,773,531 votes (49.1%). I trust that KTN tallying numbers are showing the true picture for two reasons:

  1. They seemed to have ensured that they were tallying from polling stations that were adequately representing the two candidates at any given point in time. This you could judge by computing the numbers shown per county and comparing against registered voters in those counties.
  2. Though they lagged behind in the pace of their tallying, by around last night they had overtaken all the media houses in the total votes tallied. For example, as of this writing, they have tallied close to 80% of the votes cast.
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Given the two points above, one should realise that once 80% of the votes have been counted and that the votes from counties that lean towards each of the two leading candidates are adequately represented (check the first point above), then the probability that the remaining 20% will tilt the results is very slim.

After noting the fair representation of the votes tallied by KTN, and considering the number of votes tallied to be fairly high, I decided to compute the number of votes that had been tallied per county. In my assessment, and given an earlier voter turnout I had calculated for purposes of projecting the final results, I determined that on average Ruto was still waiting for 21% of votes from his strongholds to be counted by KTN tallying centre, whereas Raila was still waiting for only 13% of votes from his strongholds to be counted by the KTN tallying centre. If my assessment is objective (being that I am a Raila supporter I think any bias should be in favour of Raila and not Ruto), then I do not see how the few Raila votes that KTN tallying numbers haven’t captured will help him bridge the 126,571 (1.1%) gap that Ruto has put between the two of them.

Also read: Why Citizen TV, NTV and KTN are not agreeing with each other on the presidential results

Odipo Riaga
Managing Editor at KachTech Media
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